IBM earnings: implied vs. actual move
International Business Machines · Next report: 2026-10-21 AMC · implied ±7.8%
50%
moved more than implied (8/16)7.1%
10-yr avg move (n=40)0.95×
avg actual ÷ impliedHistory
| Date | Implied | Actual (close) | Peak | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | ±6.9% | +0.4% | -3.2% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2026-04-22 | ±6.5% | -8.3% | -12.0% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2026-01-28 | ±6.5% | +5.1% | +8.8% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2025-10-22 | ±6.8% | -0.9% | -8.3% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2025-07-23 | ±6.3% | -7.6% | -10.4% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2025-04-23 | ±6.7% | -6.6% | -8.6% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2025-01-29 | ±6.5% | +13.0% | +14.5% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2024-10-23 | ±5.8% | -6.2% | -7.1% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2024-07-24 | ±6.2% | +4.3% | +6.7% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2024-04-24 | ±6.1% | -8.3% | -10.0% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2024-01-24 | ±4.5% | +9.5% | +13.2% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2023-10-25 | ±4.3% | +4.9% | +5.3% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2023-07-19 | ±4.0% | +2.1% | +3.6% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2023-04-19 | ±4.1% | +0.0% | +3.7% | Miss (crushed) |
| 2023-01-25 | ±4.1% | -4.5% | -5.5% | Beat (moved more) |
| 2022-10-19 | ±5.7% | +4.7% | +5.3% | Miss (crushed) |
Source: EarningsWatcher, https://earnings-watcher.com/wiki/ibm-implied-move
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